M&A

The Earnout Equation: Making Sense of M&A Valuation Gaps

Reaching a mutually agreeable valuation can be one of the most challenging aspects of the M&A negotiation process.

Earnouts offer a flexible and performance-based approach to closing valuation differences. According to SRS Acquiom, earnouts increased significantly in 2023, reaching approximately 62%.

This blog will explore the roots of M&A valuation gaps, how earnouts can resolve them, and best practices for structuring these agreements to ensure success.

Understanding the causes of M&A valuation gaps is crucial for buyers and sellers. These gaps often arise when there is a disconnect between how each party perceives the value of a business.

Identifying Common Causes of Valuation Gaps in M&A

Valuation gaps in M&A transactions typically stem from differing assessments of a company’s future potential and current worth. These differences can be attributed to several factors.

  1. Differing Financial Projections: Conflicting financial forecasts are one of the most common causes of M&A valuation gaps. Buyers often adopt a conservative approach, focusing on historical performance and potential risks. In contrast, sellers tend to be more optimistic, emphasizing future growth and expansion opportunities.
  2. Market and Industry Conditions: If the industry is changing rapidly or facing uncertainty, buyers may perceive higher risks, leading to lower valuations. Sellers, however, might see the same conditions as opportunities for growth, justifying a higher asking price.
  3. Intangible Assets: The value of intangible assets, such as brand reputation, intellectual property, and customer loyalty, is often subjective and can vary widely between buyers and sellers.  Globally, the intangible assets were worth 61.9 trillion dollars in 2023, a 8% increase compared to 2022.

Sellers may value these assets highly, seeing them as unique advantages driving future success. Buyers, however, may be skeptical about the future monetization of these intangibles, leading to lower valuations.

How Buyer and Seller Perspectives Create M&A Valuation Gaps

The fundamental differences in buyers’ and sellers’ views of a business create inherent valuation gaps. Buyers, being risk-averse, typically focus on:

  • Risk Mitigation: They consider worst-case scenarios and potential obstacles to achieving projected growth. This cautious approach often results in lower valuations.
  • Post-Acquisition Integration: Buyers factor in the costs and challenges of integrating the acquired business into their existing operations. This includes potential cultural clashes, operational inefficiencies, and additional investments required.

In contrast, sellers, driven by a desire to maximize returns, often emphasize:

  • Growth Potential: Sellers highlight the potential for the business to achieve significant growth, often citing opportunities that have not yet been fully realized.
  • Strategic Value: Sellers may argue that their business offers unique strategic advantages, such as market share, customer base, or proprietary technology, which justify a premium price.

An earnout is a contractual provision that ties a portion of the purchase price to the future performance of the acquired company. Essentially, it allows the seller to “earn” additional compensation based on how well the business performs after the acquisition.

How Earnouts Work

  • Performance Metrics: The earnout is typically based on specific performance metrics, such as revenue, profit margins, or EBITDA. These metrics are agreed upon during negotiations and serve as benchmarks determining whether the seller receives additional payments.
  • Time Frame: Earnouts are usually structured over a specific period, commonly ranging from one to three years post-acquisition. This period allows the buyer to assess the business’s performance while the seller continues to benefit from its success.
  • Payment Structure: Earnouts can be structured in various ways, including fixed payments tied to reaching specific milestones or a percentage of earnings over the agreed period.

Benefits and Risks Associated with Earnout Structures

Earnouts offer several advantages in bridging valuation gaps but also come with risks that buyers and sellers must consider.

Benefits

  • Alignment of Interests: Earnouts align the buyer’s and seller’s financial interests. The seller is incentivized to ensure the business performs well post-acquisition, while the buyer mitigates the risk of overpaying.
  • Facilitation of Deals: Earnouts can be the key to closing deals that might fall apart due to valuation disagreements. By offering a performance-based component, both parties can feel more secure in the transaction.
  • Flexibility: Earnouts provide flexibility in deal structuring, allowing for creative solutions tailored to the specific circumstances of the transaction.

Risks

  • Disputes Over Performance Metrics: Disagreements may arise over how performance metrics are defined and measured. This can lead to disputes during the earnout period, potentially resulting in litigation.
  • Impact of External Factors: External factors beyond the seller’s control, such as economic downturns or industry disruptions, can affect performance metrics, leading to lower earnout payments.
  • Complexity in Negotiation: Structuring an earnout adds complexity to M&A negotiations. Both parties must clearly define terms, conditions, and contingencies to avoid future conflicts.

Effectively structuring an earnout is critical to ensuring that the buyer and seller benefit from the agreement and avoid potential conflicts. A well-structured earnout should be transparent, fair, and flexible enough to accommodate various scenarios that might arise post-acquisition.

Guidelines for Creating Balanced and Fair Earnout Agreements

  1. Clearly Define Performance Metrics
    • The success of an earnout hinges on the clarity of the performance metrics used to calculate additional payments. These metrics must be specific, measurable, and directly tied to the company’s financial health.
    • Both parties should agree on how these metrics will be calculated and reported. Ambiguity in performance criteria can lead to disputes, so it’s essential to outline the exact parameters in the contract.
  2. Set Realistic and Achievable Targets
    • Earnout targets should be challenging yet realistic. Setting unattainable goals can demotivate the seller and lead to dissatisfaction if the earnout is not realized. Conversely, setting goals that are too easy to achieve might result in the buyer overpaying.
    • To find the right balance, consider the company’s historical performance, market conditions, and potential risks that might affect future outcomes. Conducting thorough due diligence and forecasting can help parties agree on fair and achievable targets.
  3. Include Provisions for Unforeseen Events
    • M&A transactions are often long-term, and many factors can influence the acquired company’s performance after the deal closes. Including provisions in the earnout agreement for unforeseen events can protect both parties.
    • For example, you might include clauses that allow adjustments to the earnout targets or payments if certain external factors significantly impact the business’s ability to meet its goals.

The Role of Legal and Financial Advisors in Earnout Negotiations

Legal and financial advisors play a crucial role in structuring earnouts, ensuring that the agreement is legally sound, financially viable, and aligned with the best interests of both parties.

  • Legal Advisors: A skilled legal advisor can draft the earnout agreement precisely, ensuring that all terms are clearly defined and enforceable. They can help anticipate potential areas of conflict and draft provisions to address them.
  • Financial Advisors: Financial advisors are essential for evaluating the viability of the earnout structure. They can analyze the proposed performance metrics, model various scenarios, and assess the potential impact on both parties.

Post-Deal Considerations: Monitoring and Adjusting Earnouts

After the M&A deal closes, careful monitoring and, if necessary, adjusting the earnout are crucial to ensuring that the agreement works as intended.

  1. Regular Performance Reviews: Implementing a process for regular performance reviews can help both parties stay on track and address any issues early on. These reviews should include detailed reporting on the agreed-upon performance metrics, allowing the buyer and seller to verify that the earnout terms are being met.
  2. Adjusting Earnout Terms When Necessary: In some cases, the original earnout terms may need to be adjusted due to changes in unforeseen business or market conditions. Both parties should be open to renegotiating certain aspects of the earnout if it becomes clear that the original terms are no longer appropriate.
  3. Dispute Resolution Mechanisms: Disputes can still arise despite the best efforts to create a transparent and fair earnout agreement. Including a well-defined dispute resolution mechanism in the earnout contract is essential. This might involve appointing an independent auditor to review the performance metrics or agreeing to a specific arbitration process.

Earnouts are potent tools in M&A transactions. They can bridge M&A valuation gaps while aligning the interests of buyers and sellers.

If you’re facing challenges in your M&A negotiations or need assistance structuring an earnout agreement, Now Exit can help. Contact Now Exit today to learn how we can support your next transaction and drive value for your business.